Tsunami warning: how will Trump’s trade policy impact Asia in 2025?

President Donald Trump will be inaugurated for a second time on 20th January 2025. His trade policies, if enforced, will upend the post-WWII global trading system. Global multinationals and exporters worldwide will face a significantly more difficult business environment.

This may understate the coming change. Trump’s new administration will challenge the global consensus and the accepted wisdoms of modern economics.

In the short term, companies and investors must prepare for tariffs, strained alliances, and impulsive, unilateral policymaking that will be aggressive even compared to Trump’s previous term. Relocating to Vietnam, India, or Mexico to cut costs and sidestep the US-China geopolitical rivalry will no longer shield global companies from uncertainty or further costs.

Significant tariffs on imports from outside the US may make Trump’s first-term trade wars seem trivial. According to his (consistently inconsistent) campaign statements, he may impose 60%-100% tariffs on goods from China and 10%-20% on everything else, no matter where these goods are made.

• President Trump has promised to be a bomb-thrower, using aggressive tactics to benefit “America first”. We should take him at his word.
• His incoming administration will face fewer checks and balances than his first. No trading partner will be entirely spared.
• Opportunities will certainly emerge across Asia for countries who move fast and ingratiate themselves to the US markets.
• All Asian countries will hope to find growth nearer to home and Intra-Asian trade will boom. Those Asian countries which show agility and diplomacy will enjoy great profits, in the coming turbulent seas.
• On balance, India, Japan, and Indonesia look well-placed, but it would be foolish for any Asian companies to be complacent. As ever, fortune will favour those who are most courageous, and canny.
• Technology and Healthcare are poised to thrive regionally. Consumer and Services companies will find room for growth.
• Asian companies should not ignore the European markets, which will look increasingly attractive if the US puts up barriers.
• BDA Partners stands ready to support its financial and strategic clients to take advantage of these fast-flowing waters. Change creates opportunities.

Download the full report here

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About BDA Partners

BDA Partners is the global investment banking advisor for Asia. We are a premium provider of Asia-related advice to sophisticated clients globally, with over 25 years’ experience advising on cross-border M&A, capital raising, and financial restructuring. We provide global reach with our teams in New York and London, and true regional depth through our seven Asian offices in Mumbai, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul and Tokyo. BDA has deep expertise in the Chemicals, Consumer & Retail, Health, Industrials, Services, Sustainability and Technology sectors. We work relentlessly to earn our clients’ trust by delivering insightful advice and outstanding outcomes.

BDA Partners has strategic partnerships with William Blair, a premier global investment banking business, and with DBJ (Development Bank of Japan), a Japanese Government-owned bank with US$150bn of assets.

US securities transactions are performed by BDA Partners’ affiliate, BDA Advisors Inc, a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). BDA Advisors Inc is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and SIPC. In the UK, BDA Partners is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). In Hong Kong, BDA Partners (HK) Ltd is licensed and regulated by the Securities & Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activities to professional investors. www.bdapartners.com

Huong Trinh, Partner and Head of HCMC, BDA, discussed Vietnam’s growing education sector in Vietnam Investment Review.

According to Trinh, market consolidation and platform expansion will draw attention from strategic investors, private equity and venture capital firms. Global and regional players are looking to acquire local education providers to strengthen their presence in Vietnam and expand platforms across the region.

“Simultaneously, local players with foreign backing are pursuing bolt-on opportunities to consolidate the market further. K-12 education remains one of the most active subsectors, while growing demand for private higher education is driving interest in Vietnamese universities,” Trinh said.

PE and VC firms will continue to play critical roles in driving the growth potential in Vietnam’s education sector, Trinh added.

“Financial sponsors typically focus on scaling operations to enhance efficiency and profitability, leading to increased investment in infrastructure, technology, and teacher quality. Moreover, with many education providers already backed by PE and VC firms, we anticipate more exits from financial sponsors in the coming years,” she explained.

Read the full article here

Jonathan Aiken, Partner and Head of London, discussed the global M&A market and the impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions on UK-Japan business in a recent UK Japan Connect Newsletter.

As our report shows, 2023 was another challenging year for the global M&A market. APAC in particular saw decreased levels of activity. Japan, however, appears to have outperformed the rest of the region, especially for outbound transactions. This looks to be continuing through H1 2024. What is driving this activity?

We’re excited by what we are seeing in Japan: both inbound into Japan and outbound into the rest of the world. We’ve seen a rekindling of animal spirits driven by a host of factors:

Inbound

• The continued rise of private equity, both local Japanese sponsors but also international financial investors. The recent approach by Alimentation Couche-Tard for Seven & I is the latest manifestation of increasing fluidity and movement of investment options into Japan. BDA hosts a range of private equity conferences events in Asia, including in Japan, and the nature and depth of participation has expanded significantly in the past few years.
• Low cost of acquisition capital (compared to Western markets with constrained lending), buoyant equity markets, and the view of Japan as a safe strategic partner have combined to supercharge deal activity.
• Japanese companies and assets, when they become available, typically hold premium market share positions or technology leadership; they are also offer highly sought after domestic customer market access.
• With a clouded view of the Chinese market, Japan has become the preferred developed economy of choice for international investors in Asia.

Outbound

• Weak domestic aggregate demand has traditionally pushed Japanese companies to invest overseas. This is coupled with significant megatrends including an ageing society; increasing footprint of large Japanese groups with significant exposure to developed economies such as the USA and Europe; continuing need for raw material, and production access to Southeast Asia and China.

Geopolitical stressors, including the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict have had a heavy impact on the global M&A market. Supply chain interruption, workforce displacement, inflation and interest rate rises have challenged boardroom confidence and resulted in a lack of available finance. How are you seeing this impacting Japan inbound and outbound M&A?

There is no doubt that getting deals is much harder than a few years ago. To take a few examples, post COVID we saw a deep acceleration in technology valuations followed by a spike in luxury and consumer investment related to home living. The COVID and energy shocks gave rise to increased inflation, squeezed margins and missed budgets. Forecasting became challenging, and buyer-seller valuation expectations diverged.

What we see now is a return to more normal, prosaic forecasting. But normal is good and this paves the way to increased deal flow. The relative political and economic stability in Japan has also contrasted well with a gyrating political landscape in Europe and North America which impacted confidence. Predictable economic policy and support has set the foundation, in many ways, for the favourable outcomes we see today in Japan.

A decade of loose monetary policy, including quantitative and qualitative easing and negative interest rates, has led to a steady depreciation in the value of the yen. Recent rate hikes by other central banks has only exacerbated the problem, notwithstanding a recent rate rise from the Bank of Japan and indications that more are likely to follow. How is the value of the yen impacting the Japanese economy and Japan M&A?

For private equity, low acquisition financing cost of capital is attractive. Japanese companies are seldomly overleveraged and there is certainly a capital efficiency arbitrage opportunity. The relative magnitude of rate rises in Japan compared to the West is modest and we do not expect any short term negative effects.

One theme in our report is heightened regulatory scrutiny of transactions. As antitrust and foreign investment (national security) regulators have become more aggressive, we are increasingly seeing transactions subject to detailed review, remedies and in some cases being prohibited entirely. In terms of national security reviews, in our experience, Japanese buyers have historically been viewed by regulators as “safe” owners of sensitive assets and infrastructure. Are you seeing any change in perception here?

In the West we see increasing scrutiny of mega mergers. Regulators, to take one example, largely regret earlier technology mergers that were allowed to go ahead when understanding was poor of the possible implications. This has led to more aggressive review and challenges of blockbuster deals in the West. Added to this are increasing tensions and blocking of transactions on national security grounds, such as MAN Energy’s blocked sale to a Chinese buyer. The recent historical experience in Japan is different, with fewer regrets and less national security concerns.     

As a final question for our readership that may be looking at doing a Japan-outbound transaction in the next 12-24 months, what advice do you have for a Japanese company looking to acquire a foreign target? How can a Japanese company maximise its chances of success?

As a general rule, we find corporate groups have limited M&A teams and constrained post integration capabilities. Added to this is the relative cultural, language and sector challenges of seeing through a successful deal. An experienced advisor that can bridge these differences is therefore essential.
 
BDA specializes in deploying teams across the world: one team in close proximity to the shareholder with another team adjacent to the target. By working seamlessly together and leveraging key sector insights, local knowledge and best practices we enhance and maximize the prospects of success and minimize the all too common pitfalls that befall even the most experienced corporate deal team.

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About BDA Partners

BDA Partners is the global investment banking advisor for Asia. We are a premium provider of Asia-related advice to sophisticated clients globally, with over 25 years’ experience advising on cross-border M&A, capital raising, and financial restructuring. We provide global reach with our teams in New York and London, and true regional depth through our seven Asian offices in Mumbai, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo. BDA has deep expertise in the Chemicals, Consumer & Retail, Health, Industrials, Services, Sustainability and Technology sectors. We work relentlessly to earn our clients’ trust by delivering insightful advice and outstanding outcomes.

BDA Partners has strategic partnerships with William Blair, a premier global investment banking business, and with DBJ (Development Bank of Japan), a Japanese Government-owned bank with US$150bn of assets. bdapartners.com

Mark Webster, Head of Singapore, BDA Partners, was quoted in Private Equity International:

It’s “unrealistic” to expect to find the same number of $1bn-plus deals in SE Asia as you find in the Western markets. One of the reasons for this is the fragmentation and scale of the region. There are not enough regional platforms that can navigate the nuances of SE Asia and address the demand for scale. “If your pan-SE Asia business is a properly integrated entity enjoying economies of scale, then that’s the dream. But not all can live up to that standard. They can try and project that image, but if you look under the hood, investors could discover there’s still work to do in terms of truly integrating a business that’s been built up by acquisitions across different geographies.”

Read the full article here

Korea’s M&A market showed encouraging signs of recovery during 3Q24, with optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts and restructuring efforts from large conglomerates driving increased deal activity. PE funds aggressively pursued M&A opportunities, which led to a notable rise in high-value transactions. Five deals exceeded KRW1 trillion (US$750m) in 3Q24, compared to just one in 1H24.

Among the highest profile transactions during this period was the KRW2 trillion (US$1.5b) acquisition of Ecorbit, underscoring Korea’s active deal environment. BDA Partners played a key role in the transaction, advising the buyer, IMM Consortium, working across the table from UBS and Citi. This involvement has led BDA Partners to secure its place near the top of the M&A league tables for corporate acquisitions with a total transaction value of KRW 2.07 trillion in 3Q24.

This surge in large-scale deals reflects growing confidence in the market, as both local and international players capitalise on the improving financial advisory landscape. With interest rates expected to decline, even more M&A opportunities are likely to emerge, particularly in sectors such as waste management and semiconductors. BDA Partners, with its extensive experience, is well-positioned to navigate high-value transactions, as the market outlook remains positive.

Read the original article here

Many global multinationals are divesting their Chinese assets because of geopolitical tensions.

BDA Partners has developed expertise in finding buyers, often local Chinese financial sponsors or corporates, to acquire these assets.

If you are considering divesting anything in China, please speak with us to learn what options may be possible.

Here are some examples of Chinese divestitures we have managed:

China MNC Divestitures Credentials

The global fertility services market is expected to grow at a robust CAGR of 7% over the next decade, driven by an aging global population, rising infertility rates, and couples delaying childbirth. Market demand tailwinds are even more pronounced in Asia and the fertility market ecosystem is relatively nascent compared to the West. Asia Pacific market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next 10-years, significantly outpacing global growth. Scaled regional players have started to emerge and are looking to consolidate the highly fragmented market, taking advantage of scale economies, leveraging regulatory differences across markets, sharing of best practices, clinic expertise and technology to drive better patient outcomes / success rates.

The fertility services market has attracted significant interest from both strategic and financial investors seeking to build regional platforms:

• The business model has attractive characteristics such as high barriers to entry (due to license requirements, brand reputation, access to talent, clinical expertise / ability to achieve high success rates), robust EBITDA margins and low capital intensity relative to hospitals
• SE Asia has been a particular focus for global investors due to the high fragmentation of providers and large under-served populations with growing local demand for fertility services
• India has also attracted strong interest as the IVF sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% over the next 10 years, and scaled players have emerged with the backing of financial sponsors

In the next five years, we expect significant M&A activity in the fertility services sector across Asia, with a particular acceleration in SEA and India as several large players establish their dominant positions in the region.

Please reach out to BDA Partners for a discussion regarding specific IVF M&A / investment opportunities.

Download the full report for more insights regarding the IVF sector landscape in Asia.

Since the start of 2024, we have seen a strong upturn in M&A after a challenging year. BDA’s pipeline and sector expertise have continued to grow. We have published many insight pieces from our sector heads within Consumer & Retail, Health and Technology this year. Please join our mailing list to read our latest insights and reach out to BDA Partners for a discussion regarding specific M&A opportunities. 

North Asian countries already comprise the world’s largest markets for beauty and personal care products. China, Korea and Japan together represent 35% of the global market, with above average growth. China skyrocketed to become the industry leader in this region, but has witnessed a troubling market hangover in the last 12 months.

Asia Pacific’s luxury beauty segment – especially China – face the challenge of justifying high prices to increasingly sophisticated and discerning consumers, against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and rising quality and quantity of brands at more accessible price points. At the same time, younger women – and men – are spending more each year.

North America makes up 25% of the global market, while Europe makes up 20%. And those regions are increasingly looking to Asia for innovation and growth.

Asian beauty brands have recovered from the pandemic, and are jostling to find new, compelling ways to connect with consumers. Beauty influencers and DTC brands are both driving and adapting to buyer preferences.

In the past, people would buy beauty brands landed in China purely because they were ‘Made in France’ or ‘Made in Switzerland’. Suddenly now, Asian consumers are rediscovering and appreciating their own rich cultural backgrounds and ancient beauty practices.

This swelling national pride has encouraged new Chinese domestic labels to engage in premium-isation, to offer more interesting propositions, drawing on home advantage. Compared to international peers, they have innovated faster and shown themselves to be adaptable and responsive to local consumer trends. International brands are finding it increasingly hard to grow market share, unless they speak to local preferences.

L’Oréal remains the leading global beauty products company, with US$40bn in global sales, double the size of second-place Unilever. Rounding out the top five are Estée Lauder, P&G and the Japanese giant: Shiseido. All of these are fighting to find growth across Asia, although Estée’s big bets on China have mostly misfired.

Once the domain of Western beauty leaders, the cosmetics industry across Asia is now booming, at least outside China, blending Eastern and Western elements. Rising disposable income and evolving lifestyles drive this growth, marking the beauty industry as one of the most radiant and lucrative consumer segments.

BDA’s latest Insight report shows that:

• Skincare continues to be a dominant force in Asia
• Indian beauty is experiencing rapid growth, projected to reach US$33bn by 2027, with a CAGR of over 6%
• Thailand’s beauty industry is growing and bifurcating, with both mass and premium brands performing well
• Prominent Asian beauty companies are pursuing ambitious regional expansion across India, Thailand and Vietnam, accelerating expansion into secondary Asia Pacific markets

Younger emerging Western beauty leaders such as Kylie Cosmetics and Fenty Beauty are debuting in India, China and SE Asia to widen their consumer base.

The market is evolving and shifting fast. BDA is carefully monitoring these market dynamics, working on multiple transactions in the space. We’ve closed a number of exciting beauty transactions. We’re seeing strong dealflow. Let us know if we can help you.

GP-led secondaries have become a more attractive, alternative, path to liquidity amid a challenging exit environment for sponsors during the past two years. While APAC markets still lag behind their Western counterparts in terms of utilising this type of transaction, recent completed transactions have been encouraging.

In BDA’s latest insight piece, we share our key thoughts on the Asian GP-Led secondaries landscape:

• Continuation Fund transactions, established in the US and Europe, are growing in Asia, with notable activity in Japan, India, China and SE Asia
• Market volatility and challenging exits are driving more sponsors to the secondaries market
• Secondary investors prioritise GP-alignment, growth and resilience; however macro-economic and political uncertainties, particularly in China, have lead to a pricing gap and a more cautious investment
• Secondary funds “dry powder” remains high and investors are focusing on well-performing assets, strong GP-alignment and recession resilience

Download the full report for more insights on the Asian GP-led secondaries